What does the sub prime melt down mean and who gets the blame

Right now all we seem to hear about in any economic news is the subprime meltdown and how it is responsible for everything. Now the sub prime meltdown is bad but it is also misunderstood in both cause and effect. Let’s look briefly at both sides

The Cause - Everyone wants to blame the lenders for this. To me they get say 20-40% of the blame at most, sure they were stupid and sure it is biting them in the ass right now, as it should but they are not the real ones to blame. Our nation is so fixated on passing the buck and not actually blaming the person who is guilty our grandparents may not recognize our nation if they were with us today.

So who should get the blame for taking rapidly accelerating ARMs, hybrid mortgage loans and borrowing to the absolute limits of their budgets? Doesn’t really take a genius to figure it out does it? The people that took out mortgages that were too high or had bad terms are to blame. That is your fellow Americans and or you yourself if you took out these loans. It is so ever loving easy to blame corporate America but in the end if you borrow money and can’t or don’t repay it the blame is on you, not the company that loaned you the money.

The Effect - The news about the subprime market makes me think of El Niño. Remember El Niño the weather pattern back in the 90s that we blamed for everything. To me that is the sub prime meltdown today. A stock goes down, blame the sub prime lenders. A company lays off workers blame the sub prime market. To many illegal aliens are crushing our educational and health care systems, blame it on the subprime market. Our nation has over spent and is in a 58 trillion dollar hole just for social security alone, blame it on….OK you get the point.

The reality is the subprime bust is bad, very bad but it is also being used as an excuse for other problems in the market. Even the lenders are probably more effected by toxic unsecured (credit card) debt then bad sub prime loans. Yet make no mistake lending institutions are going to loose an estimated 300-400 billion or more before the whole thing comes to an end. Some banks will get bought by other banks, some will flat out shut down and all and all this is going to be another reason for the coming recession or more accurately depression.

Yet when it hits don’t let the talking heads on the idiot box tell you it all because of the greedy sub prime lenders First they are taking a bath you would not believe right now and getting what they deserve, lost money and some going under. Next the real reason for our recession is the US Government is spending far more money then we have and has been for 35 years, the bills are coming due.

So what can you do about all this?

First I advise you to read my post from yesterday about the overall weakness in the economy and watch the video with Comptroller General David Walker to get some specific understanding of what our real problems are and to learn some ways you can protect your assets.

Second I recommend you visit MorCap Fund Advisors, LLC and read their excellent article on the subprime meltdown to better understand it and its’ impact our our economy.

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How bad is it for our economy

I am not a gloom and doom type but I do believe in being prepared and I also don’t believe in just letting your money sit and wait in mutual funds and stocks when a clear bad time is on the way.   If I were you and I had my money in conventional US Stocks I would get out and do it now.

How bad is it really? I invite you to listen to this interview on the Glenn Beck show with Comptroller General David Walker. This should scare the hell out of you. You will learn how bad the pending social security nightmare really is.   Honestly we are “bankrupt” as a nation.

If you add this to the mortgage problems and our other weaknesses we are in real trouble.

So where would I put my money or more accurately where is my money going?

• First I am putting a good chunk into 2 year Australian Bonds at a guaranteed rate of 7.5% plus any gains as the dollar further weakens.
• Second Gold is a good hedge that has done very well, I will buy more and my only regret is that I did not buy more in the past.
• Third hold cash and possibly in the form or foreign currency such as in a United Kingdom or Canadian bank perhaps even buy bonds in some other forigne markets. Right not as I mentioned above Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK are all in great shape financially.

I don’t want to sound un American here at all but the simple fact is we are in over our heads for more then 58 trillion dollars and we have zero.   Again listen to the interview with David Walker, this man has no political axe to grind and he is the chief accountant for the United States government.   His message is simple, we are out of money.

So my advice is protect your hard earned dollars by converting them into something other then dollars.  Perhaps not all of them but pick a percentage and diversify before this bad problem gets a lot worse.

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Save money and become better shot

If you have read much of this blog then you know I am a big supporter of both saving money and the second amendment. In fact I take it a step further as I actually consider it a “duty” for law abiding and sane adults in the United States to be trained on how to use and to own a firearm. In fact I rank it right up there with your duty to vote and exercise free speech.

The other thing I am of course huge on is saving money. Now let’s face it ammunition can be expensive to buy especially for some calibers and makes of gun. In order to be proficient you of course have to practice a lot. The other issue with practice is time, if you live out in the country and can set up a range in your back yard, great, for the rest of us though every practice session is a trip to the gun range. Again this is costly in both time and money.

For me a big part of the solution is high quality replica air guns. I have used such guns to keep in practice and as a great first step in training new people. Air Gun Depot is an excellent source for high quality air guns and you may want to visit their site and see what they have available. The beauty is today’s replica guns are great training aids for a variety of reason’s

• They by and large are the same size, weight and dimensions as actual firearms
• To a high degree they function very similar to the guns they represent
• You can fire them indoors with appropriate safety measures or in many back yards again with proper safety measures so you can practice more often
• They help you teach safety and at the same time are safer then a real fire arm in the hands of a new shooter
• They are very inexpensive to shoot so you can practice a great deal on trigger control etc.
• They don’t develop trigger jerking or flinching in new shooters

In short I think air guns (both airsoft and conventional) are great training aids worthy of use by all firearms enthusiasts. They let you have a lot of fun for very little cost and will make you a consistently better shooter at the same time.

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Outsource your IT and Development

Especially for the small to mid sized business owner I am a huge fan of outsourcing. There are certain functions that you should never outsource and these I consider to be “outsourcing your soul”. So if you business builds custom cabinets and you outsource cabinet construction that to me means you no longer make cabinets you simply sell them. Yet would most small cabinet shops really have the resourses and in house knowledge to maintain a web presence or if they do a lot of business online to deal with something as complex as web hosting colocation?

Even a “high tech company” will generally not be able to provide for all of its needs with in house talent especially the countless individuals that work from home building websites that sell a variety of services and products. I have often used services like RentACoder for my needs but honestly that has been hit or miss with quality and time to delivery.

One resource you may want to consider is Momentum which acts as a single source of contact and more importantly accountability for all your IT outsourcing needs. I cannot over state the value of accountability when you are outsourcing technology projects. So just what type of IT needs can you outsource to momentum? A few things like

• Media Design
• Server Management
• Application Development
• Programming Work
• Data Back Ups
• And even on demand consulting

Today you can easily and inexpensively run a business with the proper use of outsourcing. Whether you are a small to mid sized business or an individual internet based entrepreneur, services like Momentum offer an excellent way to leverage your business and compete with much bigger companies by being more nimble and adaptable to challenges and opportunities.

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Do you need to fund a lawsuit

I am not big on “suing people for profit” and in fact I think that business is a big part of what is wrong with America today. Yet lawsuits have a place and they are a way for individuals and companies to attempt to right a wrong.  Business owners in particular may on occasion have no recourse other to file suit in certain circumstances.

In fact put yourself in this place for a second.  You own a small company that makes software and you come up with a great new product.  Along comes a much bigger company and steals your code, “improves” the product and basically says there is nothing you can do about it.  Such things can and do happen.  Now again you are a small company, facing a much bigger fish and you know they can drag it out and bankrupt you before you ever get a decision.

What recourse do you have?

You might want to consider Commercial Lawsuit Financing to fund your case from LawMax Legal Finance.   There are many times when you can’t get a good attorney on a “contingency basis” which is where the attorney will handle the case and all expenses and only get paid after they win the case for you.   In fact getting an attorney to work that way may be pretty easy in a personal injury case but in a business to business suit it can be very difficult indeed.

Services such as LawMax actually evaluate your case, determine if you have a good case and then if approved they actually loan you the money on that same contingency basis where you only repay the advance if you win your case or reach an out-of-court settlement!.  Again while I don’t think people should be suing for profit it is good to see that a service like this exists to help smaller companies take on their adversaries when necessary.

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More on investing in copper pennies

Heck why not one more post about pennies. Yesterday I did a pretty long post extolling the virtues of pre 82 pennies as a simple and small investment. Again I want to restate this isn’t a “way to get rich” but it is a really cool and fun little inflation hedge and about as risk free and low cost as any form of investing has a right to be.

Anyway I found a really cool little resource that reinforces my point that 95% copper pennies that are still in circulation are a pretty hot little item to set aside right now.

The site is called CoinFlation and I have put it into my book marks so I can always find it in the future. One of the coolest tools is a coin melt value calculator that tells you the exact value of coins when you melt them down. They have two calculators one for silver coins (pre 65 dimes, quarters, halves, etc) and one for coins currently in circulation. To give you an idea of how “valuable” pennies made prior to 1982 are. I decided to run all the comparisons at a 100 dollar face value. So lets look at some of the out of circulation silver coins that you can’t find today out side of a coin shop, some of today’s other coins and their “real value” and then compare them to the humble copper penny. Of course this is “raw

• 100 dollars face value of silver dimes, silver quarters or silver half dollars is worth $1017.81 at today’s current metal prices. They are all the same because each represented a fraction of an ounce of silver as in 1/10th, 1/4th, 1/2 ounce etc. So these coins represent about a 917% return of investment just in metal value for those who had the forsight to pull them from circulation in the 60s, 70s and for a bit of the 80s when they were still around.

• Now if you took 100 dollars worth of today’s quarters you end up with about $18.33 in raw metal value or an 81.7% “instant loss”.

• How about 100 dollars worth of today’s pennies (anything minted after 1982) you get a whopping $58.80 in raw value or a 41.2% “instant loss”.

• What about 100 dollars worth of Kennedy Half Dollars? Everyone loves those right? Same formula as the modern quarter. Melt em down and you get $18.33 in raw metal value or an 81.7% “instant loss”.

• What about the nickel? There is a lot of copper in a nickel and it is a thick coin so it does ok. Try a raw value of $113.75 or an instant return on investment of 13.7% Perhaps storing nickels ain’t a bad idea either?

So how does our humble penny add up against all this? Today’s metal prices for copper and zinc put the value of 100 dollars in pre 82 pennies in raw metal at $193.61. That is easy math an instant ROI of 93.61%! Sure the penny isn’t currently holding pace with those old silver coins and it will never catch up to them. As copper goes up you can bet silver will to. Yet that is my point you can’t just go around picking up a dozen silver dimes a day any more but you can pick up a good amount of pennies from prior to 82.

Sure even with copper at say 5 - 6 dollars a pound you would need a lot of pennies to be worth even say 10,000 dollars. Yet just think about it, each day you sort and toss some into a jar. Painless and foolproof, what do you have to loose other then a bit of space?

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Double your money in the metal market with no investment

Ok, hold on, don’t get to excited. Indeed I am going to tell you exactly how to get an almost immediate 2 fold return on your money. I am also going to show you how to do it with out spending any money, hiring a broker or even with out doing any paperwork. However, I have to tell you right up front you are not going to get rich with this technique.

In fact this technique is first and foremost fun to do, second it is designed again to program you mind in how you think about words like “money” and “value” and finally last it is about actually making/investing money.

Now that big lump to the left is a chunk of raw copper. Copper has skyrocketed in both price and demand over the last ten years. Copper is used in countless industrial activities and as countries like China, Indonesia and India continue to modernize the demand will continue to grow and often to out pace production capacity. This issue will be compounded by the boom in coal, gold and silver. Consider that you are a mining company and you are choosing where to go and what to do next. You can either mine coal which is far easier then any metal or you can mine silver or gold which is worth far more then copper. Or last you can mine copper which is profitable but if you had the option what would you mine?

Great! So how does this help you double your money with out spending it? The answer is in the humble penny. Currently and since mid 1982 all U.S. pennies are made from mostly zinc with a copper cladding, basically a zinc coin with a very thin layer of copper on the outside. Such pennies are worth damn near nothing from a metal stand point. However, any penny that is older then 1982 is 95% copper and 5% zinc alloy. What does this mean? Let’s do some math.

Step one - When you look at pennies that are made from 1981 back they are heavier then today’s. In fact there are 146 pennies to a pound. Yet we must consider that such pennies are only 95% copper so 1.05 x 146 = 154 pennies make one pound of pure copper.

Step Two - 154 pennies even those from 1981 back are “worth” in currency a whopping $1.54

Step Three - Copper is currently trading at the time of this writing for $2.84 per pound. Hence 154 pennies are “worth” $2.84 in raw copper and copper is a commodity you can actually sell it for very close to the current spot price.

Step Four - Calculation of our return by simply dropping an 1981 or earlier penny into a “special” jar or container is as follows. $2.84 - $1.54 = $1.30 of “profit”. Now take you profit of $1.30 and devide it by your “initial investment” of $1.54 and you have a “instant return of investment” of 84%. Not quite double but as soon as copper goes back over 3 dollars a pound (which analysts believe will be quite soon) and you are at a full 100% return.

We should also consider that copper was trading for about 60-70 cents just 20 years ago and you start to realize just how high your “return” can be if you just start tossing all you pre 82 pennies into a jar for the next twenty years.

This is a great project for adults and kids alike. The bad news is again you are never going to get rich with this and in fact copper will have to go up to say 6 bucks a pound before you will really be able to “cash in” pennies in any real volume. The good news though is there is no doubt that over the years that will happen and because we are talking pennies not many people are making an effort to store away copper pennies.

In 1959 the U.S. stopped making the “wheat cent” and while most of those have been horded away by collectors from 1959 to 1981 100% of pennies produced in the US are 95% copper and virtually no one have really collectively valued them at anything more then one cent. That is 22 years worth of pennies still traveling around in circulation which means their are hundreds of millions of these pennies out there being spent every day. I always drop my pre 82 pennies in a jar and about 1 out of 5 tend to be pre 81’s. Over the years that is a lot of pennies.

So why do this? I mean save 4 dollars a month this way and you make about 4 in return and you have another 400 fricken pennies to deal with right? Short sighted my friend, the key is you don’t do very much to earn that return and most people are making less on their interest bearing savings accounts a month in America. All you do is follow my advice and “spend cash” and each day go through your pennies and drop any 81 or earlier examples into some special container. How much easier can “investing” be?

Just consider if in 10 years you had 15,400 pennies or $154 bucks. Those pennies if copper is at 6 bucks by then will be worth about get this, 600 dollars. Retirement money? Heck no! Just another little store house of money. Additionally while I never get to concerned with numismatic value because of how highly subjective it is there is another opportunity here.

See first let me warn you if you are currently thinking of buying 200,000 or so pennies from a bank, sorting them out and melting the older ones don’t do it! The U.S. Government will frown on that and possibly make you wear some silver bracelets and break a few rocks for a few years. Such activity is illegal for now anyway. Yet as copper keeps going up (and it will) sooner or later the mint will begin to “retire” the old copper. That is a nice way to say they will take the pennies out of circulation and harvest the copper for use. Of course the government is free to do that. This will make a lot of these 60s ad 70s pennies harder to come buy and add some numasmatic value to them as well.

That is many years into the future but let me ask you this. How cool would it have been if say your grandfather started collecting 1964 and earlier silver dimes for you when we stopped making them in 65? For about 10 good years it was easy to pluck silver quarters, dimes and half dollars from circulation. Today it is very rare to find one. I happen to own a huge pile of such coins put away for me by a very smart grandparent. This led to my love of silver in the first place. Today we have the opportunity to start doing something like that for our children, their children and possibly their children’s children. What would 100,000 Indian head pennies be worth today?

There is more at work here though tied to the production of pennies and the metal price. Do you know why 1982 was the year that the penny changed to a zinc core? In the early 80s all metal prices spiked for a while and even then a penny was worth more as copper then as a penny! So zinc was a cheap alternative and coating it in copper kept the penny looking like well, “a penny”.

Today though even zinc is rising in price and it costs about 8/10ths of a cent in raw metal to make a penny. That is before production costs, etc. This means the US Mint is Loosing Money to make pennies. Additionaly so long as people spend cash we can’t get rid of the penny we have to have something in order to make change of a dollar with. I predict therefore that the days of the humble Lincoln cent are numbered! The easy solution is to come up with coin made of something perhaps even cheaper then zinc and make it smaller too.

Since no vending machines take pennies there is no problem with changing the size of the penny. Don’t think it can’t happen either, they did it with the dollar coin. When sooner or later this change occurs it will be another numismatic bump in the value of all pennies and even more so to the all copper variety. So I encourage you to take the phrase, “save your pennies” with a new vision. Start plucking the little copper disks from circulation today and just put them away.

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The reason I invest in silver coins

I have already written a bit about my affinity in my post, What I Blow Money On, but today as a follow up to my article on investing in gold it seems like a good time to talk a bit more about precious metals before we move on. In addition I am going to provide you some of my own rules on buying silver coins.

First let me lay out my case for why silver is a good investment. Simply put all metal commodities are doing very well right now and will continue to do so. Heck even copper is getting rather expensive. Back in the 80s I remember copper going for about 70 cents a pound. Today it is hovering in the range of 2.80-3.00!

Many people see silver as a “poor man’s gold” and I think that is rather short sighted. First I don’t care if silver is ounce for ounce far cheaper then gold if you have 1000 dollars worth of gold or 1000 dollars worth of silver you are holding the same value. Now silver and gold are true brothers in my opinion and the price of one is indeed tied to the price of the other. While they are not completely pinned to one another and the Hunt Brothers debacle will skew numbers from the 80s and early 90s there is a strong correlation (precentage wise) to movements between the two. To get an idea of the correlation look at the two graphs below which cover 1997-2007…

As you can see again while not lock step with each other the two metals perform very closely to each other on the open market.

So why not just buy gold? Understand I am not saying to not buy gold it is just that I truly “invest in gold” I buy through my broker and I buy both actual gold, gold funds and stock in gold companies. I have nothing against doing the same with silver but I prefer to actually buy, hold, touch and own my silver mostly in the form of coins.

Why? Two answers….

First, because I love silver coins, they are history, they are beautiful and they are something material to me that I can look at and appreciate. In this way Silver Coins offer me something that 95% of my other investments can’t. Sure I can look at my stock certificates but there isn’t much fun in that. Most of my other investments are just numbers on paper then don’t have the feel, look and glitter of my coins.

Second, because investing in many different things and in many different methods creates diversity. The beauty of silver coins (at least of the type I purchase) have most of their value in the silver basis price. I can “cash in” anytime I want and do so with no paper work or government red tape. I can literally walk into a shop, sell my coins and walk out. Holding silver coins is like holding cash money with out the cancer of inflation upon it.

So what rules to I have for investing in silver? Here they are but understand these are no ones rules but my own. A few you really should follow but others are more about your risk tolerance and your personal view about numismatic values.

1. I do not belong to nor do I buy my silver in any kind of “club” or any highly advertised coin supplier. In particular Littleton Coins is among the worse places of all to buy coins. Their prices are generally 40-90% higher then local coin shops in my area. I buy from local merchants or only via mail order if the price is as good or better then local pricing.

2. Directly related to the above, I am not on any type of auto shipping or monthly arranged purchases. I buy what I want as I find it and as I want it. My silver investments are truely incremental investments outside of my conventional portfolio.

3. I never buy “junk silver coins” which are large unknown lots of mostly 1960s and older dimes and quarters. Most are worn so badly you can scarcely read the dates.

4. While I don’t buy junk coins I also don’t buy highly numismatic valued coins. In other words I never buy a coin where the bulk of the coins value is based on how “collectible” or “rare” it is. Such values are highly subjective and only represent a “real value” if you can find a buyer. Try buying a 200 dollar silver dollar this week and see what the same shop will pay you for it (with out a big jump in price) the following week. This is the one rule that I understand when others break, this is my personal preference but I have my reasons.

5. What I do buy are Silver American eagles as they are priced right about bullion prices. I also buy high quality but common Franklin, Kennedy and Walking Liberty Half dollars which are still quite affordable and made of 90% pure silver. My other big favorites are the more common Morgan and Peace dollars. These coins to me represent a nice mix and all are very affordable and most importantly highly tied in value to the silver basis.

So what is my advice? Well I think it makes a lot of sense to buy some silver over the years and just have it as a hedge against inflation not to mention an investment that remain liquid in both the best and worst of times. The beauty is you can buy say a 10-20 dollar coin just once or twice a month if you don’t have a lot of extra money to invest. Even that over the years can build a nice collection and a lot of real value. I personally buy between 20-150 dollars a month of silver and have been doing so since 1995. As you can see by the graphs in this article that has been a very good move.

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